FED:ANZUS to grow in importance: Lowy

AAP General News (Australia)
08-17-2011
FED:ANZUS to grow in importance: Lowy

By Adam Gartrell, AAP Diplomatic Correspondent

CANBERRA, Aug 17 AAP - Australia's alliance with the United States will grow in importance
over the coming decade, but it will also become more demanding, a respected foreign policy
thinker says.

September 1 marks 60 years since the historic ANZUS Treaty between Australia, New Zealand
and the US was signed in San Francisco.

The treaty has long underpinned Australia's strategic security in the sometimes volatile
Asia-Pacific region.

But the Lowy Institute's Andrew Shearer says the rise of China means Australia is now
navigating "murkier" strategic waters.

Mr Shearer says Australia and the United States must act with urgency and foresight
to ensure a peaceful future.

"The window of opportunity to shape a favourable future security order in Asia is closing
fast," Mr Shearer says in a new paper to mark the upcoming 60th anniversary.

Sino-American competition will pose a great test for Australian diplomacy over the
next 10 years, he says.

But Australia will not be forced to choose between its alliance with US and our economic
future with China as some commentators suggest.

"We have already chosen. We chose in 1951, and we chose the United States," the paper says.

Lowy Institute polling shows that while ordinary Australians recognise the economic
benefits of dealing with China they are concerned about the giant nation's intentions.

That has led them to hew more closely to the security offered by the US alliance: "A
classic hedging strategy," Mr Shearer says.

The alliance can give Australia the strategic confidence and strength to intensify
its economic ties with China over the coming years, he says.

Mr Shearer concedes it is possible - despite everyone's best intentions - that China
and the US could slide into conflict. Australia should do everything possible to prevent
such an outcome.

"But the idea that we could somehow stand aside from such a conflict - another notion
that crops up in the Australian debate - is fanciful," he says.

Mr Shearer says the alliance will demand more of Australia as America's debt limits
its capabilities.

"Australia's comfortable days as a largely passive southern anchor are behind us," he says.

Mr Shearer was a foreign affairs adviser to former prime minister John Howard. He has
also worked in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Department of the Prime
Minister and Cabinet and the Office of National Assessments.

AAP ag/bwl/jl

KEYWORD: ANZUS

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